EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Background to study
1. The NEET group has high policy salience, not only due to the current problems faced by these young people but also the negative impact of inactivity on their labour market futures.
2. It is known from research that it is a very diverse group. It is important to find more accurate ways of measuring both the size of the group, and of the different populations that make it up.
3. The study focused on alternative measures and assessing these against the criteria of overall accuracy, capacity for geographical disaggregation and by group or type of young person, and timeliness.
4. The alternative measures considered were:
- the Annual Population Survey ( APS);
- a combination of the School Leaver Destinations Survey and data on 18-19 year olds on Department for Work and Pensions ( DWP) benefits;
- the difference between the size of the total population aged 16-19 and the numbers known to be in education, employment and training;
- an administrative database, similar to the English CCIS database, building on Careers Scotland's Insight database.
Conclusions and recommendations
5. In making recommendations, these were organised around the three tasks for which good quality data are required.
- Monitoring changes over time in the numbers in the NEET group at the Scotland level.
- Monitoring changes over time in the numbers in the NEET group by locality.
- Analysing the characteristics of the NEET group to help design more effective interventions and allocate resources to deal with the problem on a rational basis.
6. In relation to monitoring changes over time at the Scottish level, the recommendations are as follows.
- Use the APS to generate estimates for the total number in the NEET group at a point in time.
- Employ the DWP/School Leaver Destinations Survey data as a check on the changes in the size of the NEET group over time, backed up by the APS.
7. To monitor changes over time in the NEET group by locality, the following methods are most appropriate.
- While recognising this is restricted to only one month per year, the DWP benefits data and the School Leaver Destinations Survey provide the only reasonably accurate measure for assessing change on an annual basis.
- A quarterly proxy for changes in the size of the NEET group by localities can be generated through the DWP data on 18-19 year olds.
8. To identify the characteristics of the NEET group and how these change over time, the following recommendations are made.
- The focus should be largely on the APS, while recognising that this can be done only at the Scottish level.
- More limited analysis can be carried out by local authority area using the DWP benefits dataset where the segmentation of client group is by gender, duration of claim, presence of dependent children and type of benefit.
Overview of appropriate NEET measures
The broad conclusions of the review are as follows.
- The proposed administrative database constructed around Insight is the far superior option in relation to all the required tasks where measurement of the NEET group is required.
- Although this will probably be a costly option, the cost is mitigated insofar as the Insight-based approach will be a by-product of a client management system which is an essential tool for Careers Scotland staff.
- In the interim, careful use of the APS and the DWP benefits data/School Leaver Destinations Survey, deployed in tandem, can help monitor and analyse the NEET group over time and by locality.