EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. On 4 July 2008, the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth announced the commencement of the Review of the Scotland Wide Free Bus Travel Scheme for Older and Disabled People, with the requirement that proposals should be forthcoming for a more sustainable scheme and that the eligibility criteria for all those who currently benefit from the scheme would be maintained.
2. To take forward the Review a Steering Group, comprising representatives from the Scottish Government's Transport Directorate ( TD), Transport Scotland ( TS) and the Confederation of Passenger Transport ( CPT) was established to direct, scrutinise, and approve all stages of the review process, leading up to this concluding report.
3. The Review was tasked with considering the following areas:
- The demand for and utilisation of the present scheme;
- How effectively the scheme is meeting the objectives set for it;
- How the present scheme is meeting the needs of particular groups of bus users, including disabled people;
- How best to improve access for injured forces veterans;
- How the practical operation of the scheme can be improved;
- The implications of any extension to the scheme; and
- Whether the scheme is delivering value for money to the taxpayer.
4. To take that work forward a number of task groups were created to look at these areas in the context of:
- the current and future costs of maintaining the scheme;
- examining the basis behind the reimbursement rate paid to the bus operators;
- determining the most productive mechanism to ensure that bus operators were reimbursed on time; and
- the eligibility criteria applying to both people and services.
5. The tasks groups did not work in isolation. Many of the areas being reviewed impacted or had the potential to impact across the four tasks groups. The coordination and sharing of information between the task groups was a key component of the Review.
6. As part of the Review, the Steering Group made use of the Scottish Government commissioned report by the Halcrow Group Limited, which had been tasked to carry out an evaluation of concessionary travel in Scotland to establish the effectiveness of the scheme against its policy objectives and to assess the impacts across a range of measures. The study was tasked with considering the impact of concessionary travel on behaviour and the extent to which it had impacted positively on social inclusion, modal shift and the establishment of healthier lifestyles among particular groups.
7. A number of important issues remained prominent during the course of the review. Some of these were such that is was not possible or credible for the Steering Group to suggest that it had reached any level of consensus, while others clearly merited further work and discussion.
8. First and foremost, the Review acknowledged the overriding commitment to retaining the scheme, in its present format, and considered that this was a significant undertaking by the Scottish Government, most particularly given the current economic uncertainties.
9. The Review considered very carefully the handling and utilisation of statistics when considering various arguments, recognising that in some instances the information - and in other instances the nature of the matter at hand - is understandably complex. This is particularly the case in determining the appropriate re-imbursement rate to apply to the scheme. Nevertheless, the Steering Group has sought to consider the best evidence available in making judgements on the success of the scheme and the priorities for the future.
10. The Review concluded that, from a strict measurement point of view, there was insufficient evidence to determine the precise extent to which the National Concessionary Travel ( NCT) scheme had directly contributed to the promotion of social inclusion. At the same time, in terms of take up and usage, the NCT scheme had been a clear success.
11. The Review looked in some detail at a number of factors that could potentially impact on the long term sustainability of the scheme, including the issues of funding. While the scheme is 'free' to eligible passengers, there is a substantial cost to government and the taxpayer, which means that issues around the financial sustainability of the scheme should always be kept under review. In the context of the current and anticipated budgetary commitments for the scheme, and any growth in patronage, the financial implications of maintaining the scheme needed to be made clear.
12. The Review recognised the implications of the Scottish Government's aspiration towards modal shift from car to bus. There is some evidence to suggest that NCT has contributed to around 12 per cent 'full modal shift' and around 47 per cent 'partial modal shift'.
13. The Review recognised the many benefits that a further extension of concessionary fares to other disadvantaged groups could bring, including positive accessibility benefits and wider economic benefits. However, costs have increased significantly and - given the demographics and how that may translate into concessionary fares - could continue to do so in the future. This was taken into account when looking at any potential extension to eligibility to the scheme.
14. One particular issue considered by the Review is the evidence around social exclusion and older persons (in this context 60 plus). Recent legislative developments and changing socio-economic factors suggest - other things being equal - that a greater proportion of the 'older' generation will be working longer. While recognising that economic factors can change, as is apparent in recent months, this could result in such people being economically 'better off' than their counterparts a decade or so ago. The Review noted that it might be appropriate to examine the current eligibility criteria based on age. The Review considered that such an approach would not be inconsistent with the wider aspirations of the scheme and that it would also be reflective of changing social factors.
15. The Review has considered current eligibility and examined in detail various calls for extending eligibility. In view of the cost of the scheme, it has not recommended substantial increases in eligibility, beyond the inclusion of seriously injured ex HM Forces veterans from 1 April 2011.
16. The Review has not considered any immediate change in eligibility but has concluded that the objectives of NCT should properly be kept under review and that continued emphasis should be on achieving these objectives and obtaining value for money. In addition, given the importance of having robust evidence in determining compensation to the bus industry, it will be necessary to take steps to improve the specific information requirements around NCT compensation. This will be a matter towards which both the industry and government can contribute.
17. The Review has recommended some changes to the administration of the scheme. These and other recommendations are outlined at the end of the report.
18. Finally, the Review recognised the need for regular and ongoing dialogue between CPT and the SG about the potential future of the scheme beyond the conclusion of the current seven year commitment.
Steering Group
Concessionary Fares Review
March 2009